CFP Betting Guide: Breaking Down 20 Thru 16
Part two of five. Breaking down A&M to Oklahoma, 20 thru 16, the next five and their odds of making the Playoff. Let's jump in.
20 - Texas A&M (+220)
Texas A&M comes into the season with their biggest addition by subtraction. Jimbo Fisher is gone, Elko is back. Aggie faithful are thrilled to have the former DC back on the sidelines but mostly relieved to have Jimbo Fisher gone. There has been some turnover for the Aggies, but they return 10 starters including last year's starting QB Conner Weigman, who went 3-1 before going down with a season-ending injury, as well as two starting receivers. Another thing that bodes well for the Aggies is their schedule. A&M opens with Notre Dame (#7) at home and closes with #4 Texas, also in College Station. But, it does not include Alabama (#5) and Georgia (#1). They have an incredibly high ceiling and a bright future. However, to make the playoff in the SEC, they would need to be a top three team. And they won't be. I would take them at home week one against the higher-ranked Notre Dame, but they are not worth the playoff future.
19 - Miami (+220)
"It's all about the U!" The song still plays, and even being 30 years removed from the flashy teams of the early 90s, people think fondly of Miami. This is what lands them at #19. That and a pretty vanilla ACC schedule. Based on the way the math works, though, the ACC will likely only get two teams in. And even with a favorable schedule (only one preseason ranked opponent), I do not think Mario Cristobal will finish in the top two of the ACC. If you are looking for some action on this team, I would suggest fading them week one when they head to The Swamp against a sneaky good Gator team.
18 - Kansas State (+250)
Kansas State is the 2nd favorite to win the Big 12 behind only Utah, and for good reason. They upgraded their quarterback with Avery Johnson, whose first start came in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, winning 28-19 over NC State. He will be joined by three returning wide receivers in Jadon Jackson, Jayce Brown, and Keagan Johnson, and a front line with four multi-year starters. This offense is going to be complemented by their defense. They also have all of their (preseason) ranked games at home this year. At 2.5-1, I think they are a lock to make the playoff and have a chance to beat Utah for the Big 12 title outright.
17 - Oklahoma State (+650)
Gundy made some headlines at media day when he came out strong for buzzed driving. The reason: Ollie Gordon. When your potential Heisman-winning running back is returning, you can get a little fast and loose about getting loose and going fast. Even with a solid amount of returning starters, though, I think this team lacks the talent to win the title, and with only two (preseason) ranked opponents and no Bedlam, they won't have the strength of schedule to earn a bid. I look forward to watching this team play this season, just not in the playoffs.
16 - Oklahoma (+450)
Oklahoma is one of the same faces, new places teams as they enter the SEC ranked #16. It is Venables' third year as head coach, and after a 10-3 season last year, including a huge win in the Red River Shootout, the Sooners are poised for some regression. Their defense will be ready to step up to the challenges of the SEC, but their offense could be in trouble. Their offensive line is entirely new this season and hits into the conference with the most talent on the other side of the ball. They also have half of their games against (preseason) ranked opponents. I am looking forward to seeing how this new line holds up for Brent and the boys, but I suspect they are going to have a rude awakening their first season in the Southeastern Conference. If you are looking for some Sooner action, I would take the under on their win total at 7.5.
Up next, 15 thru 11, which has three massively underrated teams and two very overrated teams. Come on back to see who the contenders and who the pretenders are in the next edition of the CFP Betting Guide.