Denver @ New Orleans (+2.5) | O/U: 37

It’s coming home, it’s coming home—the disgraced football coach who quit on you is coming home. Sean Payton is heading back to the Superdome to face the infirmary Saints, who are currently without their starting QB, their two top receivers, and a significant portion of their defense. Fortunately for them, they are facing a Broncos team that ranks 22nd in both offense and defense.

This is the perfect Thursday night game—the kind that makes you feel okay about not subscribing to Amazon Prime. You’d have to be a real football-obsessed, fantasy-loving, gambling sicko to watch this game. I’ll be tuned in. Let’s make some picks.

Game Breakdown: Broncos, Over

Hold your nose here—this game will be a stinker because both teams have been bad. That being said, the Saints have at least been entertaining. However, with their depleted roster and the cunning of Sean Payton returning to the stadium, I have to lay less than a field goal with the Broncos.The injuries on the Saints’ offense and the strength of the Broncos’ defense, give me Orange Crush -2.5.

Sigh The total. I had a great stat two weeks ago about the under-trending Thursday night games. It was an amazing stat— the best stat—brought it to you with tears in my eyes.

And then, Kirk went off for 500 yards, TNF went to overtime, blowing by the over, and there were 21 points in the last 5 minutes of the San Fran-Seattle game last week. Trend-wise, that should mean this game returns to normal, and we can expect a low-scoring affair.

However, 37 points is very low for a game that could get sloppy. Broncos games have only averaged 34.6 points, but the Saints games have gone wild, with an average score of 52.7. I think this game will be a bit chaotic—maybe a defensive score and a couple of broken plays—and the over hits.

NFL Game Prop: Javonte Williams 50+ yards (+115)

Javonte Williams has been disappointing this season. As the primary ball carrier for an offense with a rookie QB, the expectation was that he'd be toting the rock more. However, his season high is 16 carries and he has no touchdowns. He’s only surpassed 50 yards twice this season.Still, the Saints' rushing defense allowed over 200 yards last Sunday to a less-than-average Tampa rushing attack. I think Payton will try to take the crowd out of it by relying on the run game and riding Williams. I’ll take over 50 rushing yards tonight—he just needs the carries.

Bets Recap:

Side: Broncos -2.5 (-115)
Total: Over 37 (-112)
NFL Game Prop: Javonte Williams 50+ yards (+115)